Caulfield Cup Day Best Bet & Preview

BEST BET – AMBIENCE Caulfield – Race 4 No. 2

Godolphin’s three-year-old filly is simply a late-bloomer. Was having only her fourth start into the Dulcify Quality (1600m) when not only thumped her male counterparts but did so with amazing sectionals. Her final furlong was notably quicker than other winners on the day including Exopshere and Winx. More importantly she seemed to do it with remarkable ease. A cracking type open to further improvement and expected to eat-up the 2000m, James McDonald and John O’Shea look to have the right horse, at the right time, over the right trip. Barrier two won’t hurt either. Bet-up at the $2.40 as she certainly fits the bill as BEST BET of the weekend.

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Once the barrier draw was completed it confirmed our belief that Mongolian Khan will win the Caulfield Cup. Only bad luck will beat him.

His last two starts have been super and I especially liked his latest run, for third, behind Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes. He carried 58kgs under the wfa scale and drops to 55kg for the Cup.

He’s a dual Derby winner and loves the 2400m which is his pet distance.

The speed bump is the overseas horses, mainly the Japanese pair of Fame Game and Hokko Brave.

They are both very good, but Fame Game appears to have the edge. I liked the way he powered to the line in the Tenno Sho back in May.

That was 3200m and I’m not at all concerned about him tackling 2400m first-up. The Japanese style is to work them harder and longer, so fitness shouldn’t be a problem.

Jockey James McDonald would win on a broomstick at the moment. His Cup mount, Hauraki, has also been progressing well this preparation. Hauraki steps out to the 2400m for the first time, but he gives every indication the trip will suit so I rate him just ahead of the mares (Lucia Valentina and Rising Romance) to grab third.

Speaking of Lucia Valentina, she’s drawn out wide, which is probably why she’s a $34 chance. That’s way over the odds for mine. This distance is more her go, she’s well weighted, but will need luck.

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