The third golf major of the year gets underway on June 17th when the 2021 U.S. Open tees off from the South Course at Torrey Pines. Despite having never won a major championship, Jon Rahm is the 10-1 betting favorite in the latest 2021 U.S. Open Market. He is followed by a group of several top players, including Dustin Johnson (16-1) defending champion Bryson DeChambeau (18-1), Brooks Koepka (18-1), Rory McIlroy (20-1) and Jordan Spieth (20-1).
Our Top Rated Golf Handicapper has previewed the event below, finding some outstanding betting value to keep you in the profit column at Torrey Pines.
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US Open Preview & Best Bets from Top Rated Handicapper
It appears this year might be one of those when the USGA is going to inflict pain for what happened in the previous US Open when Bryson DeChambeau won at Winged Foot in September. The USGA prides itself on its U.S. Open setup, and it thought last year it had it right at Winged Foot. The USGA wants a winner that plays the 72 holes in even par and prefers that winner to hit a high majority of fairways. That means about 42 of the 56 fairways and 52 of the 72 greens. DeChambeau took advantage of something the USGA didn’t consider in 2020. The course was prepped perfectly, with the rough difficult enough to give most players the most difficult of swings. But in practice rounds, DeChambeau realized the rough wasn’t a match for his strong swing and he would be able to get the ball out of the rough, especially if he was close to the green. Big Bryson played long and strong and collected the cash for Sportsbet Magazine subscribers and the rest is history.
For this year’s U.S. Open, the USGA had the course shave the rough way down and reduce the overseeding with the ryegrass. So the Kikuyu has taken hold, and the rough is higher and much more dense than it was in 2008. Even the strongest players won’t overpower the Kikuyu, so if they hit it into the rough, they will pay a price.
So, depending on the weather, we should see a very difficult U.S. Open, and the odds are excellent that the winning score will be over par, the way the USGA likes it.
Look for daily betting value in over par scores.
The Course – Torrey Pines South
This is the 121st edition of the U.S. Open and the second being played at Torrey Pines. The last time it was played in 2008 had an epic ending. Tiger Woods, playing on a fractured leg, beating Rocco Mediate in a Monday playoff. It was tied after 18 extra holes, and Woods won with a par on the first sudden-death hole.
The big difference between this week and when the Farmers was played in January is the weather. With sun and warm weather, there is a lot more grass on the fairways and greens. The course will be firm, but it won’t be fast, since Kikuyu fairways don’t have much run in them. Balls usually park themselves within a few yards of where they land.
The forecasts call for sunshine every day, with temperatures in the low 70s with the wind expected to be under 10 mph each day. With the low temperatures, the ball won’t fly as far, and with no roll, you have to eliminate the short hitters. The course will play to a total yardage of 7,632.
US Open Betting
Taking On – Justin Thomas 15/1 is under the odds in this event, even though he won the Players Championship and is the No. 2 player in the world. Thomas has not been playing well outside of his Players win and is well under the odds to bounce back at Torrey Pines. Im laying him in this tournament.
The Key to winning this event is being great with the driver, with a combination of straight and long. Success is hitting off of fairway grass. If you’re in the rough, you’re asking for trouble.
Best Bets – Top 3 Bets for Outright Win
Xander Schauffele 25/1 – Was T-2 in January at Farmers. He plays his best on tough courses. In four U.S. Open starts, he was fifth last year, T-3 in 2019, T-6 in 2018 and T-5 in 2017. Is 18th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 11th in greens in regulation and eighth in strokes gained putting. This guy has everything to win this week.
Collin Morikawa 25/1 – Is first in strokes gained tee-to-green, greens in regulation and strokes gained approach and is fourth in par breakers. The bottom line is, just like at the PGA Championship, if Morikawa putts above his average, he can win.
Jon Rahm 10/1 – Torrey is right up his alley, he won there in 2017, finished second in 2020 and was T-7 last year. Is second in strokes gained tee-to-green, second in total driving, fifth in greens in regulation and sixth in par breakers. Has the right form and fit for the course.
Best Value Bet
Cameron Smith 55/1 – The Australian is second in first-round scoring (only recently being eclipsed by Jason Kokrak). He’s also a great ball striker and tends to play well on difficult courses. Despite his lack of grandeur during U.S. Opens, he makes cuts and tends to still play well. He’s been gaining strokes like crazy on the field, especially during his winter run that saw no finishes worse than 17th. I think Torrey Pines will suit his game and look for him to continue to hit a lot of greens.
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Best Prop Bet – Cameron Smith to lead after Round 1 55/1
Bryson Vs Brooks
Koepka’s heated rivalry with Bryson DeChambeau (+3300 to win) is expected to take center stage this weekend, and it should come as no surprise that the Koepka-DeChambeau match-up bet is the most popular match-up bet by both total handle and total bets. The public is heavily behind Koepka (+105) to finish higher than DeChambeau (-135), backed by 89% of the handle and 95% of the bets.
Betting By The Numbers
U.S. OPEN ODDS TO WIN:
Jon Rahm +1000
Bryson DeChambeau +1400
Dustin Johnson +1400
Xander Schauffele +1400
Brooks Koepka +1800
LARGEST % OF TOTAL HANDLE:
Phil Mickelson (10.1%)
Brooks Koepka (9.2%)
Xander Schauffele (9%)
Jon Rahm (5.7%)
Bryson DeChambeau (5.5%)
LARGEST % OF TOTAL BETS:
Phil Mickelson (6.1%)
Jon Rahm (5.4%)
Brooks Koepka (5.3%)
Collin Morikawa (3.9%)
Bryson DeChambeau (3.7%)
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