The 2020 horse racing schedule has been flipped upside down and for the first time in history we will crown a Kentucky Derby champion in September. Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law is the 3-5 favorite at TVG who are offering Sportsbet Magazine readers a matched bet of up to $300! Grab your Derby attire and mint julep because it’s time to find the upset winner of the 2020 Kentucky Derby.
Before you bet this race, make sure to take advantage of the $300 matched deposit offer. Even if your horse loses, you will receive a matched bet in the form of a bonus credit up to $300. Let’s find some value!
Taking On The Champ and Odds on Favorite Tiz the Law 3-5
The scratching of Art Collector earlier this week was certainly a boost for odds on Kentucky Derby favorite Tiz the law. Art Collector was to be the biggest covid benefactor with the delay of the Derby due to the pandemic, he wasn’t even close to qualifying for the race back in May.
Art Collector was the 4-1 pick to challenge the top selection.
As much as Tiz the Law looms an odds-on favorite with a mark of six wins in seven starts, highlighted by big wins in the Travers Stakes and Belmont Stakes in his last two starts, that lone loss came last year on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs.
That defeat did come way back on Nov. 30 when he finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He boasts a four-race winning streak since that loss, all around two turns. The distance isn’t a concern, however barrier 17 and the speed map shows a tough run. Tiz the law would be the first Kentucky Derby winner to ever win from 17 and I don’t see him having the early speed on a leader bias track to overcome the difficulties. Although as the speed map shows, he will give one hell of a sight and is still rated 21% chance to win from Scorecast simulations, the price just isn’t right to justify. Tiz the law is the well deserved favorite, and undoubtedly the hardest horse to beat on Derby Day. Tiz the Law is the shortest morning-line favorite in the Derby since 1989 but he drew the No 17 post position. That post position is 0-for-41 in the Derby. The price just isn’t right.
Introduce Bob Baffert
Authentic (8-1) – Trainer Bob Baffert has endured so much bad luck this spring, but he still has the son of Into Mischief. The distance is a query, however I trust the greatest horse trainer and triple crown trainer Bob Baffert to have him right for Derby Day. Jumping from barrier No. 18 post position isn’t ideal, but unlike Tiz the Law he has the natural pace to overcome the poor draw and lead from gate to wire. I don’t expect there to be a lot of pace in the race as indicated by the speed map below, Scorecast simulated the Kentucky Derby and Authentic is winning 19% of simulations at 8-1 and our TVG Select Best Bet to win the Kentucky Derby.
How to bet the Kentucky Derby – Kentucky Derby Best Bet – Authentic – $100 to Win, $200 Place
Sign up with TVG here to receive a matched $300 bet if Authentic fails to win.
Kentucky Derby Full Field, Odds & Last Start Finish
| 1 | Finnick the Fierce | Martin Garcia | Rey Hernandez | 50/1 | 7th, Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland |
| 2 | Max Player | Ricardo Santana, Jr. | Steve Asmussen | 30/1 | 3rd, Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga |
| 3 | Enforceable | Adam Beschizza | Mark Casse | 30/1 | 4th, Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland |
| 4 | Storm the Court | Julien Leparoux | Peter Eurton | 50/1 | 2nd, La Jolla Handicap (G3) at Del Mar |
| 5 | Major Fed | James Graham | Greg Foley | 50/1 | 2nd, Indiana Derby (G3) |
| 6 | King Guillermo | Samy Camacho | J. C. Avila | 20/1 | 2nd, Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park |
| 7 | Money Moves | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 30/1 | 2nd, Allowance at Saratoga |
| 8 | South Bend | Tyler Gaffalione | Bill Mott | 50/1 | 4th, Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga |
| 9 | Mr. Big News | Gabriel Saez | Bret Calhoun | 50/1 | 6th, Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland |
| 10 | Thousand Words | Florent Geroux | Bob Baffert | 15/1 | 1st, Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar |
| 11 | Necker Island | Miguel Mena | Chris Hartman | 50/1 | 3rd, Ellis Park Derby at Ellis Park |
| 12 | Sole Volante | Luca Panici | Patrick Biancone | 30/1 | 6th, Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park |
| 13 | Attachment Rate | Joe Talamo | Dale Romans | 50/1 | 2nd, Ellis Park Derby at Ellis Park |
| 14 | Winning Impression | Joe Rocco, Jr. | Dallas Stewart | 50/1 | 7th, Ellis Park Derby at Ellis Park |
| 15 | Ny Traffic | Paco Lopez | Saffie Joseph, Jr. | 20/1 | 2nd, Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park |
| 16 | Honor A. P. | Mike Smith | John Shirreffs | 5/1 | 2nd, Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar |
| 17 | Tiz the Law | Manny Franco | Barclay Tagg | 3/5 | 1st, Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga |
| 18 | Authentic | John Velazquez | Bob Baffert | 8/1 | 1st, Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park |
