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Best Bet: Back with some more college basketball action, but this time in the Elite 8. We saw Loyola Chicago, Alabama, Oral Roberts, Oregon, Creighton, Florida St., Villanova, and Syracuse fall out in the Sweet 16 and we will be down to just 4 teams by the beginning of April. Let’s get into our 3 best bets from these Elite 8 matchups.
#2 Houston vs #12 Oregon St.
We start off with the final game in the midwest region where #2 seed Houston will meet #12 seed Oregon St. Oregon St. has the best ATS record of the remaining teams in the tournament (18-9-1), but we will not be looking at that today, as we are more focused in on the total of this bout. Both of these teams are coming off of victories where their total went under, and in March Madness history, the following game as went over at a 66% rate. When Oregon St. is an underdog this year they are 12-6 in hitting the over and those 6 losses have only came by an average of 4 points. There is also a good amount of big money coming in on the over currently as there is 56% of bets on the over with 79% of money as a +23% differential. Back the over in this tightly contested matchup.
Pick: Houston/Oregon St. Over 129
#1 Gonzaga vs #6 USC
Heading straight into our Tuesday Elite 8 games, we start with #6 seed USC facing the undefeated #1 seed Gonzaga. Currently the largest spread on the market for the Elite 8 games, USC comes in as a 9 point underdog. The Trojans have been solid ATS this season as they are 19-13 as Gonzaga comes into this matchup 14-13-2 ATS. Both teams have covered every game of this tournament, but that must end this game. USC is 6-3 (66.6%) ATS to non conference opponents this year and have score 85 and 82 points against 2 top 10 defenses in their last 2 games. They will be facing another top 10 defense in the Gonzaga Bulldogs this game, but don’t expect that to slow the Trojans offense down. Big money is coming in on the Trojans ATS as they currently only have 42% of the public backing them, but 74% of the money making that a +32% differential. Our model has this game being a lot closer than the spread projects, so back the Trojans to cover yet another game against the undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Pick: USC +9
#1 Michigan vs #11 UCLA
To round out the Elite 8 games, we see the lone Big 10 team, #1 seed Michigan facing #11 seed UCLA in the final game of the East region. Michigan comes into this game as a 7.5 point-favorite and is 4-6 in their last 10 games ATS when they are more than a 5 point favorite. UCLA hasn’t been an underdog very often this season, but in their last 3 games as an underdog, they are 3-0 ATS and 3-0 SU. UCLA looked like one of the best perimeter defense in the league against Alabama, who leads the nations in 3-pointers attempted, and made as they held the Crimson Tide to 25% (7 for 28) from behind the arc. A combination of their perimeter defense with their 4 guard lineup and their ability to force turnovers could cause a serious problem for a Wolverines team without their star player Isiah Livers. UCLA is 9-1 ATS and SU when they force 13 or more turnovers a game and are coming off a game against Alabama where they forced 15 turnovers. UCLA currently is holding 57% of the public behind them and 71% of the money with our model projecting UCLA to move on to the final 4 as the first “play-in” team to ever do so. Back UCLA to cover in this matchup and sprinkle on them to win outright.
Pick: UCLA +7.5 & UCLA ML +290
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Monday, March 29
| SCORECAST | ODDS | BEST BETS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#12Oregon State 64 | #2Houston 75 | HOU (-7.5) | BEST BET – HOU/OREG O129 | |||
#3Arkansas 74 | #1Baylor 82 | BAY (-7.5) | No Bet | |||
Tuesday, March 30
| SCORECAST | ODDS | BEST BETS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#6USC 69 | #1Gonzaga 73 | GONZ (-9) | BEST BET – USC +9 | |||
#11UCLA 74 | #1Michigan 72 | MICH (-7.5) | BEST BET – UCLA +7.5 BET – UCLA ML | |||
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