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#1 Baylor vs #2 Houston
Best Bet: And the Madness continues as we head into the Final 4 games. Starting off with the first game between #2 Houston vs #1 Baylor tipping off at 5:14 PM EST. Rather than looking at the spread in this tightly contested matchup, we are looking towards the total where we are finding great value in the fast paced Baylor offense. Baylor ranks 186th this season in adjusted tempo, but is very deflated by the beginning of the season as they have destroyed those numbers in their last 4 games. Houston has been averaging 65 possessions per game in this tournament (3rd out of the entire tournament) and the two teams are a combined 28-21 this season on the over and are 16-4 on the over in their last 10 games combined. Our model is showing this game going way over the set line as we are showing this game ending at 148 while there is no line movement at the moment and the public is seemingly going back and forth, but the under is currently holding 52% of tickets and 59% of bets, fade the sharp action and back the over in this matchup between 2 top 10 offenses and the best 3-point shooting team in the nation, Baylor.
Pick: Baylor/Houston O134
#1 Gonzaga vs #11 UCLA
Best Bet: UCLA is now the only team to have to play in a play-in game and make it to the Final 4 as their Cinderella story continues, but they now have to face the favorite to win the national champions and undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs. UCLA has been on an absolute tear in the tournament as they almost missed getting in when they lost their last 6 games of the regular season, but have since then won 5 straight and covered 5 straight to make it to where they are now. In the last 5 games, they have covered their spread by an average of 11.6 points. Don’t jump off of the UCLA train just yet because Gonzaga is undefeated as they are only 14-12 ATS. Through the Elite 8 matchups, double digit underdogs in the tournament are 8-6 ATS. UCLA is very dependent on their mid-range 2-point shots, and executing on transition offense, and we saw that all play out against the #2 ranked defense in college basketball, Alabama in the sweet 16, and then again against the #3 ranked defense in the Elite 8 against Michigan. There haven’t been a lot of teams that have been able to keep up with Gonzaga this season, but if UCLA reenacts their performances with Michigan and Alabama in this game, we will see UCLA cover be another substantial margin. Our model has this being a very closely contest game as UCLA is covering by 12 points. At the time of this article, UCLA is holding 67% of the public tickets while Gonzaga is holding 87% of the money percentage. Fade the big money and back the public in this matchup for UCLA to cover once again.
Pick: UCLA +14
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Saturday, April 3
|BAY (-5)||BEST BET – HOU/BAY O134|
|GONZ (-14)||BEST BET – UCLA +14|
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