RACE 1 – 10:40AM
Group 3 Ottawa Stakes (1000m)
Madeenaty is all the rage in Ottawa Stakes betting markets and she is clearly the horse to beat. She was well-backed when she made her racing debut in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes and she ran serious time without being tested. There is no doubt that she is a horse with a great deal of talent, but it is tough to back a two-year-old having just their second start at a quote of $1.65.
SUGGESTED BET – NO BET
RACE 2 – 11:20AM
Group TAB Trophy (1700m)
Sort After looks like a horse with a big future. She beat Euro Angel two starts back – who started the Myer Classic as one of the favourites – and she had excuses when she was beaten at Royal Randwick last start. I am a happy to give her another opportunity and if she is able to return to her best form she will be very tough to beat.
RACE 3 – 12:00PM
Prince Of Penzance Plate (2800m)
This is always a very open affair and I am keen to back a couple of horses at big odds. Kinema was not disgraced when fourth in the Geelong Cup. He is sure to have taken good benefit from that run and his best form in Europe is definitely good enough to win this race. He is great value at his current quote. Firenze is a progressive mare from the Darren Weir stable. This is a step-up in class, but she never runs a bad race and she will relish the step-up to 2800 metres.
RACE 4 – 12:40PM
Lavazza Prontissimo (1400m)
After the scratchings of Rageese and Burning Passion this is a one horse affair. Demonstrate has found his right price at $1.85 but will be winning.
RACE 5 – 1:20PM
Schweppes #Flemington Fling (1000m)
This is another very open affair, but there is value to be found. Speedeor ran good time when he won over 1000 metres at Cranbourne in what was just his second race start. He is a horse that has a great deal of upside and he can improve to a level good enough to win this race. This is a step-up in class for Ashlor, but he is a horse with plenty of talent. He has run good time in all three of his race starts to date and he is worth a gamble at his current price.
RACE 6 – 2:00PM
Listed Lexus Hybrid Plate (1400m)
My Country was scratched from the Crockett Stakes at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day and saved for this race. She would have gone very close in the Crockett Stakes and she looks well-placed here after the freshen-up. Her stablemate Quick Fee is a much better chance than her current price suggests. This is the easiest race that she has contested since her debut and she has form around some of the best fillies in the country. She is outstanding value at her current price of $14.
RACE 7 – 3:00PM
Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)
There is always plenty of chances in the Melbourne Cup and the 2016 edition is no different. Hartnell is on top of Melbourne Cup betting markets and he is deserving of that status. His performance to win the Turnbull Stakes was nothing short of outstanding and he if can reproduce that form over 3200 metres he will romp in. He has won over 3200 metres before and there is no shame in being beaten by Winx.
Oceanographer stamped himself as a genuine Melbourne Cup contender with his victory in the Lexus Stakes. His produced absolutely stunning closing sectionals off a good tempo and he is a horse that clearly relished the long Flemington straight. He will be absolutely storming home late and he will prove tough to hold-out.
Big Orange is great value at his current price. He finished fifth behind Prince Of Penzance last year, but there is no doubt that he has taken a big step forward this season. His performances in both the Princess Of Wales Stakes and the Goodwood Cup were excellent and he makes his own luck right up on the speed.
The other European raider that appeals at his current price is Wicklow Brave. He beat Order Of St George to win the Irish St Leger and Order Of St George came out and finished in the placings in the Prix De l’Arc de Triomphe at his next race start. The wide barrier draw is no issue and he is another horse that is great value at his current price.
RACE 8 – 4:00PM
Listed James Boag’s Premium Stakes (1800m)
This looks like a very nice race for Fabrizio. Fabrizio was a genuine chance in the Epsom Handicap, but he was never a chance after setting a suicidal early tempo and he proved that run had not cooked him when he won at Royal Randwick in dominant fashion last start. He has far more upside than the rest of this field and there is no doubt he is the horse to beat. Lidari returned to a semblance of his best form with a second place finish behind The United States in the Crystal Mile and on that run he can be more than competitive in this race.
RACE 9 – 4:40PM
Listed MSS Security Sprint (1200m)
There are plenty of runners in what is an open edition of the MSS Security Sprint. Faatinah is outstanding value and in my opinion should be favourite. He beat a quality field to win the Bobbie Lewis Quality first-up, he was given an unsuitable ride in the Gilgai Stakes and he was excellent in the Caulfield Sprint. The step back-up in trip suits and at his best he has an edge over the rest of this field. A roughie that is at much longer odds than he should be is Burning Front. Burning Front is a proven winner and he has three wins from his five first-up starts.
RACE 10 – 5:15PM
Group 3 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m)
Silent Sedition and Egyptian Symbol are the two main chances and the market has found them. Silent Sedition was excellent first-up behind Sheidel and should only improve on that effort, while the step-up in trip suits. Egyptian Symbol finally returned to winning form last start and can go on with the job. The wide barrier draw suits and she can make it two wins on the trot. I am more than happy to back both these horses.