Mets-Dodgers preview: Prepare for a Heart Stopper!

With DeGrom and Greinke starting, you’d certainly expect a low-scoring game. Since joining the Dodgers in 2013, Greinke is 30-5 with a 1.99 ERA at home, including the postseason. This season, he’s 11-1 with a 1.52 ERA at home and hasn’t allowed more than two runs at Dodger Stadium since April. DeGrom was brilliant in Game 1, striking out 13 in seven scoreless innings. While he threw a season-high 121 pitches, he’ll be pitching with an extra day of rest, so that shouldn’t be a major concern. He did have a notable home/road split in the regular season, however, with a 1.99 ERA at Citi Field and 3.09 on the road. That was the result of one factor: He allowed two home runs in 95 innings at home but 14 in 96 innings on the road.

One thing to Keep in mind that there is a natural tendency for umpires to favor the home team. A study of pitch data by University of Chicago economist Tobias Moskowitz showed that home-field advantage is largely the result of borderline strike calls and that the larger — and presumably louder — the crowd, the more likely that umpire bias will show. “In baseball it turns out that the most significant difference between home and away teams is that the home teams strike out less and walk more — a lot more — per plate appearance than road teams,” Moskowitz wrote in “Scorecasting” with L. Jon Wertheim.

In other words: Not that the on-screen strike zone graphic is perfect, but watch how those borderline strike calls are getting called. While both home teams won their Game 5s on Wednesday, home-field advantage hasn’t been a huge factor overall this postseason, with home teams going 9-11 so far.

The Winner – L A Dodgers at Home in Extra Innings

Best Bet – Under 6/12 runs scored at even money

The winner of this might just win the World Series!!!


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