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Best Bet: Back with more NBA Best Bets as we head to Milwaukee where we will see the red hot Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks face Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. These two teams have gone over in their matchups a combined 42-25-1 this season, but as we saw from our best bet last week with the Wizards/Nuggets matchup (two teams that hit the over at a 58+% rate) the under is a more favorable bet as teams that play each other and hit the over at a 50% rate or greater, hit the under in their match-up at a 61% rate. In all of last month, teams above .500 that played in Milwaukee scored an average of 103 PPG. With Denver’s season long opponents points per game might not be up to par, they have been on a tear lately on the defensive side as they rank 5th in the NBA in the last 5 games in opponent’s PPG (106.7). With the improvements on the defensive side of the ball for both teams, I feel as if this total is too high, as it is already going down from where it opened at (236), even with the public backing the over. Fade the public and back the under in this match-up.
According to scorecast with over 10,000 score simulations run the Nuggets/Bucks are going under by an average of 10 points and the Best Bet is Nuggets/Bucks U235 at -110 at Playsugarhouse
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Tuesday, March 2
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