As the NBA season approaches the all important All Star break, we can get a firm understanding of where each franchise is at heading on the road home to the NBA Finals.
The data has stood solid so far this season, making for a very profitable NBA Betting year so far. Let’s take at NBA Batting movements and over under win projections for pre season to get a full understanding of what we can expect heading forward.
| NBA Win Total Tracker 2019-2020 | ||||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | O/U (preseason) | % there | Max Wins | Preseason W/L |
| Grizzlies | 27 | 26 | 26.5 | 102% | 56 | W |
| Thunder | 32 | 21 | 32.5 | 98% | 61 | |
| Raptors | 40 | 14 | 46.5 | 86% | 68 | |
| Bucks | 46 | 7 | 56.5 | 81% | 75 | |
| Heat | 35 | 18 | 43.5 | 80% | 64 | |
| Mavericks | 32 | 22 | 40.5 | 79% | 60 | |
| Lakers | 40 | 12 | 51.5 | 78% | 70 | |
| Celtics | 37 | 15 | 48.5 | 76% | 67 | |
| Suns | 21 | 33 | 28.5 | 74% | 49 | |
| Hornets | 17 | 36 | 23.5 | 72% | 46 | |
| Nuggets | 38 | 16 | 53.5 | 71% | 66 | |
| Pacers | 31 | 23 | 46.5 | 67% | 59 | |
| Clippers | 37 | 16 | 56.5 | 65% | 66 | |
| Wizards | 18 | 33 | 27.5 | 65% | 49 | |
| Jazz | 35 | 18 | 53.5 | 65% | 64 | |
| Rockets | 33 | 20 | 53.5 | 62% | 62 | |
| Pelicans | 22 | 31 | 35.5 | 62% | 51 | |
| Knicks | 17 | 37 | 27.5 | 62% | 45 | |
| 76ers | 33 | 21 | 54.5 | 61% | 61 | |
| Bulls | 19 | 35 | 32.5 | 58% | 47 | |
| Magic | 23 | 31 | 40.5 | 57% | 51 | |
| Kings | 21 | 32 | 38.5 | 55% | 50 | |
| Cavaliers | 13 | 40 | 23.5 | 55% | 42 | |
| Trail Blazers | 25 | 29 | 46.5 | 54% | 53 | |
| Nets | 24 | 28 | 44.5 | 54% | 54 | |
| Pistons | 19 | 37 | 37.5 | 51% | 45 | |
| Spurs | 22 | 31 | 46.5 | 47% | 51 | |
| Timberwolves | 16 | 36 | 35.5 | 45% | 46 | |
| Hawks | 15 | 40 | 33.5 | 45% | 42 | |
| Warriors | 12 | 42 | 47.5 | 25% | 40 | L |
As we can identify from the above table the Warriors have majorly under performed this season while the Grizzlies have exceeded all expectations and have been the best NBA betting team of the season. Looking for betting value moving forward we can look at the forecasts and identify why teams may have not lived up to expectations or exceeded them.
The Grizzlies got the hand hand with the younger rookies stepping up and filling shoes to have a direct immediate impact, while the Warriors lost Stephen Curry and have now traded DeAngelo Russell to go full tank mode. The Blazers have had injuries and could be a value betting team moving forward, while Chris Paul and the Thunder showed no signs of ageing but have they peaked too soon? The Clippers are cruising and the Lakers are on track tow in the division, while the Bucks have run away with it all in the East with the main surprise coming in Toronto who after losing Kawhi Leonard are exceeding expectations.
The Heat are catching fire, have already hit 80% of their win total mark and made major moves to get better at the trade deadline. Miami acquired NBA Champion Andre Iguodala and added depth with Jae Crowder. They are a team to watch heading into the postseason.
| Notable NBA Championship Odds Movement | ||
| Team | Odds After Trade Deadline | Current Odds |
| LA Lakers | +275 | +300 |
| LA Clippers | +333 | +320 |
| MIL Bucks | +300 | +275 |
| UTA Jazz | +2000 | +1800 |
| TOR Raptors | +2500 | +2000 |
The NBA Championship odds betting is solid from game 1 right through to the all star break. Which is a very big factor as to why this has been such a profitable NBA betting season. The data and forecasts have thus far been very accurate, outside of the Warriors we have escaped major injuries from the top teams. Very minimal betting moves, which are too be expected, the biggest value market mover might be the Miami Heat. Let’s not forget back in June they were 200/1, since then Jimmy Butler has added to a roster that now includes Iguodala, Crowder and a star Point Guard in Dragic. They are now 18/1 with all major online sports books. Can they win? Probably not, but if you are looking for value in the market the Heat are about as far as you would be willing to go. They could upset the Bucks who have struggled in the postseason while the Phillies miss Reddick more than they could have imagined and the locker room has turned on each other, Toronto do enough to hang around but may have peaked for me.
The West is still best and the battle of LA is looking to be one for the ages. I cannot wait!
Scorecast projections at the start of the season after we simulate the season 10,000 times had the Lakers Vs Bucks for the NBA finals. The same match is projected as we head into all star weekend.
| Notable NBA MVP Odds Movement | |||
| Player | Opening Odds | Last Week | Current Odds |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +270 | -230 | -400 |
| Luka Doncic | +5000 | +450 | +500 |
| Joel Embiid | +1200 | +10000 | +15000 |
| James Harden | +700 | +700 | +800 |
| Paul George | +3000 | +10000 | +25000 |
NBA MVP Betting has been a one way street. Giannis is the reigning MVP and looking at back to back if betting odds have any say in the matter. He continues to dominate for the Bucks and his odds have been slashed from +270 to -400 as an almost unbackable favorite.
Luka Doncic has been the biggest surprise of the NBA season, carrying the Mavericks and Mark Cubans dreams all the way to NBA betting contention as we head into the playoffs.
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