Last season we refreshed screens in madness as the first week of NBA free agency shook the landscape of the NBA and NBA futures markets after Kawhi Leonard joined the Los Angeles Clippers along with Paul George, who was acquired from the Oklahoma City Thunder. We know how that ended. The moves sent shockwaves through betting markets while oddsmakers worked to quickly adjust their NBA futures odds at online sports betting sites. 2020/21 is no different and we are set for a frantic pace of trades that will throw out all early betting markets and allow us to find some NBA Future Betting value.
HOW TO BET ON NBA FUTURES
The Future Odds market is open year-round and the oddsmakers will adjust their numbers when trades, injuries, free agent signings, or other changes affect the NBA championship odds. Betting on NBA Futures and the right team at the right price can allow us to hedge our bets as the season evolves. For example betting on the right team early can provide better results, as seen in 2019 when the Toronto Raptors won with +1850 odds to win the NBA championship in August 2018. Compare that to the +750 odds the Raptors had in December 2018 and you can see how the NBA Futures odds could offer less value as the season progresses and the player talent is on display. The Raptors odds shortening throughout the season allows us to hedge our bets at a better price or even a series win to guarantee a profit. Future Bets are risky, its rare to bet a dominant favorite due to the risk of injuries and trades. When looking at Future betting we are also looking to define value. Which is why NBA free agency is a crazy week for Online Bookmakers.
The Covid Factor – With the all too quick transition from the NBA Bubble to tipoff of the 20/21 season on December 22, there are significant factors to take into account from a rest point of view. The Lakers are working on no rest with an ageing roster, while the once banged up Golden State Warriors have had the best part of a year of healing. We don’t yet know if significant stars that played deep into the playoffs will rest the first part of the season or rest in between games. This is significant in betting over/under win total markets more so than Championship markets and will definitely have a major impact on head to head betting markets early in the season.
Driving a Harden Bargain
Superstar Shooting Guard James Harden appears to be forcing a move out of Houston after turning down a $100 million extension and tweeting he wishes to join Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn. What makes that trade all the more likely is former Houston Rockets coach Mike D’antoni has joined the Nets as an assistant to Steve Nash. The Nets are currently +800 with major Sportsbooks and if they land Harden I could see that price as low as +300 as outright favorites to win the NBA finals.
NBA Trade Tracker
Bucks to acquire Bogdanovic via sign-and-trade
Milwaukee Bucks get:
SG Bogdan Bogdanovic
SG Justin James
Sacramento Kings get:
SG Donte DiVincenzo
PF Ersan Ilyasova
PF DJ Wilson
Bucks close to acquiring Holiday for multiple picks
Milwaukee Bucks get:
SG Jrue Holiday
2020 second-rounder (No. 60)
New Orleans Pelicans get:
PG Eric Bledsoe
PG George Hill
2020 first-rounder (No. 24)
2024 first-round swap rights
2025 first-rounder (unprotected)
2026 first-round swap rights
2027 first-rounder (unprotected)
Rockets close to trading Covington to Portland
Portland Trail Blazers get:
SF Robert Covington
Houston Rockets get:
SF Trevor Ariza
2020 first-round pick (No. 16)
2021 protected first-round pick
Suns pick up CP3 from Thunder
Phoenix Suns get:
Chris Paul
Abdel Nader
Oklahoma City Thunder get:
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Ricky Rubio
Ty Jerome
Jalen Lecque
2022 first-round pick
Lakers intend to acquire Schroder from OKC
Los Angeles Lakers get:
Dennis Schroder
Oklahoma City Thunder get:
Danny Green
2020 first-round draft pick (No. 28)
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NBA Future Markets Early Betting Value
Brooklyn. Even without adding James Harden a fit and healthy duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is a scary thought for the Eastern Conference. It’s essentially a two horse race between the Nets and the Bucks. The Bucks are looking to mortgage the franchise for a win now attitude to guarantee the signature of Giannis Antetokounmpo. At +800 I believe the Nets get hot in the East and if they do sign James Harden that number drops to at least +300. Take the early value.
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