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Best Bet: It has been 727 days since we last watched a Men’s NCAA College Basketball game. Tonight, it is finally here. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are looking to become the first team to go completely undefeated and win the national championship since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers. To do such a task, they will have to go through the 22-2 Baylor Bears. No surprise here, but Gonzaga comes into this game as the favorite (-4) after Jalen Suggs hit a buzzer-beater in overtime against UCLA. The Bulldogs have been favored in every game this season, but only have had three games where they have been less than 7 point favorites in. They are 3-0 in those games. This matchup was scheduled back in December and the college basketball world was let down when Covid-19 put a damper on that game. Drew Timme is going to be tough for Baylor to handle as he has put up 22-30 points in his last 4 games, while these are the top 2 offenses in all of college basketball, Baylor ranks a mere 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency while Gonzaga ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency. All three of the games that Gonzaga was favored by 7 or less were against teams that were 20th or lower in adjusted defensive efficiency and went on to cover all 3 games, while 2 of those 3 games were against top 15 offenses, one of those being the #3 offense in college basketball, the Iowa Hawkeyes. Baylor’s defense in this matchup is going to have a hard time keeping up #1 team in college basketball in terms of tempo. Back Gonzaga to win by more than 4 points in this matchup as our model shows Gonzaga winning by 9.
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Monday, April 5
|BEST BET – Gonzaga -4
NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING
The final game of the 2021 NCAA Tournament is here as the undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the two-loss Baylor Bears in the National Championship on Monday night. Read below for a full breakdown of how bettors at BetRivers.com and PlaySugarHouse.com are wagering on the title game.
9:20 p.m. ET: #1 Gonzaga (-4, -210 ML) vs. #1 Baylor (+165 ML). O/U 160
Gonzaga advanced to the championship game thanks to a 35-foot game-winning buzzer-beater from Jalen Suggs in overtime against UCLA. The Final Four win marked the first time all tournament the Bulldogs were unable to cover. Gonzaga enters the game five-point favorites, marking just the fourth time all season the Bulldogs are favorites of less than double-digits, and are 2-1 ATS in those games.
The public is currently backing Gonzaga to cover with 60% of the spread handle and 53% of the spread bets. More surprising is the fact that the public is currently backing Baylor to win with 72% of the ML handle and 75% of ML bets.
Gonzaga and Baylor account for 47% of the total NCAA Championship futures handle with Gonzaga being responsible for 36% of the handle and Baylor backed by 11%. Entering the Final Four, Suggs was +400 to win the Most Outstanding Player Award, but following his now legendary second-half performance against UCLA, the freshman phenom is now tied for the shortest odds to win the award with teammate Drew Timme, who was +150 prior to the Final Four.
Most Outstanding Player Odds:
Jalen Suggs (GU) +100
Drew Timme (GU) +100
Davion Mitchell (BU) +250
Joel Ayayi (GU) +700
Jared Butler (BU) +700
Notable Futures Bets:
$10,000 on Drew Timme to win MOP (+250)
$8,000 on Baylor to win NCAA Championship (+350)
$5,500 on Baylor to win NCAA Championship (+475)
$4,000 on Gonzaga to win NCAA Championship (+205)
Notable Game Bets:
$7,200 on Gonzaga -3 1H (-114)
$6,000 on Gonzaga ML (-208)
$5,500 on Baylor +5 (-108)
$5,000 on Gonzaga -4.5 (-120)
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