NFL Divisional round Best Bets from Top Rated Handicapper. After an exciting and very profitable wild-card round, the NFL serves up an intriguing four-game divisional-round ledger this weekend, and our Top Rated Handicapper has run 10,000 Score simulations for every NFL matchup and here are our best bets to keep you in the profit column.
And then there were eight.
The 2023 NFL season’s playoffs are moving ahead to the divisional round, widely regarded as one of the most exciting weekends on the league’s calendar with both conference’s top seeds back in action alongside the six survivors of “Super Wild Card Weekend.”
This season, that means the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers return (relatively) healthy and hungry from their bye weeks Saturday to face the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers, respectively, while drawing QBs C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love – both fresh off dominant performances in their postseason debuts.
Sunday kicks off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Detroit Lions, drought-free and now just one victory from the second NFC championship game berth in team history.
But the main event looks to be Sunday afternoon as the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hit the road – for the first time in QB Patrick Mahomes’ playoff career – to face the Buffalo Bills, a team they’ve eliminated twice in the past three seasons.
Ravens vs. Texans odds, moneyline, over/under & Best Bet
- Spread: Ravens (-9.5)
- Moneyline: Ravens (-450); Texans (+340)
- Over/under: 43.5
Ok, the weather may not be perfect, but Lamar Jackson has been the league’s most effective mid-range passer this season and the Texans can bleed yards to opposing pass catchers. Last weekend, Cleveland had four players over this number in a loss. Flowers also had 60 or more yards in three of his last four regular season games and a 9-78-0 line against Houston in Week 1. He’s become an elite pass catcher since then. Expect a similar productive output in Baltimore’s first playoff game on Saturday.
49ers vs. Packers odds, moneyline, over/under & Best Bet
- Spread: 49ers (-9.5)
- Moneyline: 49ers (-450); Packers (+350)
- Over/under: 50.5
The 49ers average 27/PPG on the road and I don’t expect anything less from there here. Green Bay have also been dynamic on the road, they have scored 29+ in 4 of their last 5. Six straight Packers road games have gone over. 49ers are 5-2-1 over at home. 49ers average 3rd down D will be a problem here. Packers and 49ers can score quickly (top 2 in NFL in 25+ yard plays) and I expect both QBs to put on a show.
Lions vs. Buccaneers odds, moneyline, over/under & Best Bet
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Lions (-275); Buccaneers (+220)
- Over/under: 48.5
Baker Mayfield has covered four straight as an underdog and seven of eight. He’s facing a Lions defense that gives up the most explosive pass plays. In the last four games, Detroit has given up 367 passing yards to Matthew Stafford, 396 and 411 to Nick Mullens, 345 to Dak Prescott. The Rams averaged a whopping 7.7 yards per play in their Wild Card loss. It’s true Detroit dominated the Week 6 meeting, even with David Montgomery leaving early and Jahmyr Gibbs inactive. But this Bucs defense is healthy now, has allowed one touchdown over the past 10 quarters, and has stuffed the run for the past month. Todd Bowles’ blitzes can bother Jared Goff.
Bills vs. Chiefs odds, moneyline, over/under & Best Bet
- Spread: Bills (-3)
- Moneyline: Bills (-145); Chiefs (+120)
- Over/under: 45.5
The Bills are badly beaten up with injuries on defense and after the game delay last week face the Kansas City Chiefs albeit at home but on 2 days less rest. The Chiefs offense has begun to wake up. After averaging 7.0 yards per play versus Cincinnati in Week 17 — Week 18 was meaningless — the Chiefs piled up 409 yards vs. Miami in the 26-7 Wildcard win. That included five pass plays of 20-plus yards in the 4th coldest NFL game in history. Kansas City’s defense ranks third in dropback EPA and will make Josh Allen more uncomfortable than the T.J. Watt-less Steelers did.
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