NFL Championship Sunday Best Bets from Top Rated Handicapper. The Cincinnati Bengals punched their ticket to the 2023 AFC Championship Game with a resounding 27-10 win against Buffalo. They will now face top-seeded Kansas City in the AFC Championship, with the game listed as a pick’em in the latest NFL odds. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is a 2.5-point favorite against San Francisco in the 2023 NFC Championship Game.
Playoff Football is where the data becomes most important and after 10,000 Score simulations for every NFL Championship Sunday matchup here are our best bets to keep you in the winners column.
SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5) @ PHILADELPHIA (-2.5)
Brock Purdy will be striving to lead the second-seeded 49ers to their second Super Bowl in the past four seasons. His rise from the 262nd and last pick in the NFL draft to unbeaten in seven career starts is becoming stuff of legends. Purdy is surrounded by offensive talent and one of the best play callers in the NFL as they matchup against the NFL’s best defense.
Philadelphia’s defense, which ranked second in total defense (301.5 yards per game) in the regular season, will be the best Purdy has faced. Counting the postseason, the Eagles have racked up 75 sacks, third most in NFL history. The only two higher outputs came from the mid-1980s Chicago Bears, who had a record 82 in 1984 and 80 in 1985. Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick (16 sacks), defensive ends Brandon Graham (11) and Josh Sweat (11) and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (11) all established career highs for sacks. The defense also includes tackle Fletcher Cox (seven sacks) and safety C.J. Johnson-Gardner, who tied for the league lead with six interceptions.
This is too much of an ask for a rookie Quarterback in his biggest career game on the road.
Purdy finally looked shaky for much of the Cowboys game and it limited the 49ers to field goal tries rather than TDs. The Eagles have the strongest pass rush in the league and have allowed 200 net passing yards just once in the last seven games. With Purdy going on the road in this massive pressure situation, don’t expect much from the 49ers offense. The Eagles offense had no issues in the first half against the Giants despite health questions entering the game around Jalen Hurts and Lane Johnson, and they should be able to get to 20+ points and cover here.
San Francisco 49ers – 17
Philadelphia Eagles – 24
CINCINNATI (-2) @ KANSAS CITY (+2)
The Bengals won’t be lacking in confidence after beating the Chiefs three times in the last 13 months, however when these 2 teams last met a takeaway on a fumble by Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce turned the game at Cincinnati in December in the fourth quarter, and kicker Harrison Butker missed a 55-yard field goal that would have sent the game into overtime. I don’t see that happening again.
We’ll see if the Bengals offensive line can hold up without the benefit of snow slowing down the pass rush, and what worked against Josh Allen (blitzing & more blitzing) isn’t going to work against Mahomes, no matter his health. The Chiefs feel less dangerous than last year without Tyreek Hill, but Mahomes’ season numbers were actually better. I’ll take the home ‘dog (5-2 ATS in this round since 2000) as a great value play at this number and Mahomes once again to showcase why he is the best Quarterback in the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals – 27
Kansas City Chiefs – 30
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