49ers vs. Chiefs preview: Best Bets and odds for Super Bowl 2024

NFL Super Bowl Best Bets from Top Rated Handicapper. After an exciting and very profitable NFL Season, the NFL serves up a mouth watering replay of Super Bowl 54 when the Kansas City Chiefs face off against the San Francisco 49ers. Our Top Rated Handicapper has run 10,000 Score simulations for Super Bowl 58 and here are our best bets to keep you in the profit column. 

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Kansas City Chiefs

Winning form is the best form! The Kansas City Chiefs ended the regular season with an 11-6 record, which is their worst record since Patrick Mahomes was sitting behind Alex Smith in 2017. That form is behind them now and when the big moment arrives the Chiefs know how to handle the pressure, once the playoffs rolled around they have looked unstoppable. Star tight end Travis Kelce hadn’t had a single game with 100 receiving yards or multiple touchdowns since Week 6 against the Los Angeles Chargers. He now has two such games in these playoffs. The Chiefs are playing their best football of the season right now and have the experience in the big games to get the job done.

San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers, despite having a bye week in the wild card round, have struggled in the playoffs, needing come-from-behind wins against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in order to secure their ticket to the Super Bowl. However it was the way they won and found a way to win against Detroit that impressed me most. The 49ers have arguably the most complete roster in the NFL, with stars at nearly every important position. If you compare the rosters from Super Bowl 54 when the 49ers led the Chiefs by 10 points with 11 minutes to go, the Chiefs have lost quality players like Tyreek Hill while the 49ers have added superstars such as Christian McCaffrey. The Niners have reached four NFC conference championship games in the last five seasons and have zero rings to show for it.

Super Bowl 58 Best Bets from Top Rated Handicapper

The Winner

It’s been a wild ride through the playoffs for the Niners. Credit the poise of Brock Purdy and the ability of his playmakers to deliver in the clutch, the 4th quarter performance to beat the Lions was offensively sensational. Purdy has threats all over the field and the wild card of Deebo Samuel. Of course Patrick Mahomes has been doing the same for years and has beaten the 49ers each of the last two times he faced them, including in the Super Bowl 54. Both of those, however, came against Jimmy Garoppolo’s SF, and the collection of big-play threats on the 49ers side figures to be a handful for KC to slow down. This might be the best Chiefs defense of the Andy Reid era, but other than Mahomes and Kelce, not sure where KC has an edge and I think we are getting outstanding money line value for the San Francisco 49ers to hoist the Lombardy.

Scorecast

San Francisco 49ers – 27

Kansas City Chiefs – 24

Best Bet – San Francisco 49ers Money line -120

Best Bet Over/Under Super Bowl 58

The total opened at 47.5 and has not moved! The offensive talent on show with 2 of the highest scoring coaches in the NFL its hard to see this game not going over. After 10,000 score simulations the average total is 51.

Best Bet – Over 47.5 -110

Best Same Game Parlay Super Bowl 58 – San Francisco 49ers Win – Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Odds +250

Deebo Samuel accounted for 12 touchdowns this year, but I didn’t realize at first glance that five of them came on the ground. If the 49ers are to win, as I predict, Samuel will likely have to play a big role so a touchdown at plus-money odds makes sense to me.

Kansas City deploys a two-high defense approximately 3/4 of the time, and against that coverage, Samuel has a 35% first read share and 24% target share since November. If you want to have more fun, a +2500 ticket on Samuel to win MVP is absolutely worth a sprinkle

Best Super Bowl 58 Betting Longshot – MVP

For all the reasons above, it’s Deebo Samuel all day long. He’s a true X factor and was the clear difference maker in the 49ers win over the Lions. When he left the game early against the Packers it really hurt them offensively. The Chiefs will have a plan for CMC and will look to limit Aiyuk with their best safety. Insert Kittle as a blocker and it’s the Deebo Samuel show.

Super Bowl 58 MVP Deebo Samuel +2500

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