RACE 1 – 12:15PM
Red Rock Deli Plate (1700m)
This is a tricky race for punters as there are a number of horses that are on the way up. Mount Omei returned to the races with a close second behind Katswiri and she should have taken a great deal of benefit from the run. The wide barrier draw is actually an advantage as she will be storming home late and Hugh Bowman is riding with plenty of confidence. She is the only horse I want to be on in this race.
SUGGESTED BET – Mount Omei $6 EW
RACE 2 – 12:55PM
Twitter Trophy (1700m)
This is not a race that I am particularly keen to get too invested in. The one horse that does stand out at a big price is Goathland, who will be making his debut in Australia. Goathland has not been seen at the races in almost a year, but his best European form would be good enough to go close in this race and Macedon Lodge-owned horses can often sprint well in their Australian racing debuts.
SUGGESTED BET – Goathland $31 SOMETHING THE WIN, TRIPLE THE PLACE
RACE 3 – 1:35PM
Subzero Handicap (1400m)
Best Edition of the greys race for some years. ROCK FORTHE LADIES has had a perfect preparation for this. He’ll drop in midfield and he’ll get the drop on all the main dangers, he’ll be hard to beat despite the big weight. FABULONH and HARBOUR GREY both look well placed on the minimum. In peak form with soft runs, they’ll both run well. ONEROUS and MURT THE FLIRT both have strong claims in a deep race.
SUGGESTED BET – MURT THE FLIRT $5 EW
RACE 4 – 2:15PM
Melbourne Mile (1600m)
The Melbourne Mile is another very tricky race for punters. The market can’t really separate the top six chances. PAY UP BRO will enjoy the huge drop in weight and the mile looks ideal. With even luck getting cover he will be charging over them late. REFULGENT is your typical Weir runner, he just keeps on racing well. With a perfect run, he’ll be hard to beat. GRANDE ROSSO still has more upside this prep and he was a soft winner last start. MIHANY can bounce back, he looks like controlling the front.
SUGGESTED BET – PAY UP BRO $5 EW
RACE 5 – 2:55PM
Listed TCL QUHD TV Stakes (1800m)
This looks like an ideal race for Exocet. She drops back in class after taking on the good fillies throughout her 2016 Spring Racing Carnival campaign and she finished just behind subsequent Myer Classic winner I Am A Star in the Moonee Valley Fillies Classic. That performance was even better than it looks on paper as she was caught in the worst part of the track. She looks to have a class edge on this field and she is clearly the horse to beat.
SUGGESTED BET – EXOCET $2.70 WIN
RACE 6 – 3:35PM
Group 3 L’Oreal Paris Stakes (1400m)
This is arguably the most interesting race of the day. Arguably the most interesting runner of the day is Arod, who is back in Australia for the first time since the 2015 Spring Racing Carnival. It has been a while between wins and he is sure to improve from the run. We tipped Rageese on derdy day and were disappointed to see the scratching, should be winning here.
SUGGESTED BET – RAGEESE $4 WIN
RACE 7 – 4:15PM
Listed Mumm Stakes (1000m)
Terravista and Hellbent are clearly the two horses to beat and it is no surprise that they dominate betting. At the price differential I have to side with Terravista. His first-up record is nothing short of outstanding and if Damien Oliver was able to hang on to his whip he would be unbeaten at his two race starts over 1000 metres. He has class on his side and he never runs a bad race at Flemington.
SUGGESTED BET – TERRAVISTA $4 EW
RACE 8 – 5:00PM
Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m)
It is all about Yankee Rose in the Crown Oaks. Her lead-up form is a class above the rest of this field after finishing in the placings in both the Flight Stakes and the Cox Plate and winning the Spring Champion Stakes. The only real question mark is whether she will run out a strong 2500 metres. She has always given the indication that she would get out over a trip and she probably doesn’t even need to run it out strongly to win. There is no doubt that she is the horse to beat and she might be the perfect horse in which to take advantage of odds boost with.
SUGGESTED BET – YANKEE ROSE $1.85
RACE 9 – 4:40PM
Group 3 Crown Resorts Plate (1100m)
This is another tough race in which to finish a strong day of racing. The likes of Spright and Kentucky Miss looked well-placed, but the value runner in this field is Twist Tops. She returned to the races with a more than credible third at Warwick Farm and she should take a great deal of benefit from that run. She is over the odds at $17.
SUGGESTED BET – TWIST TOPS EW $20
