UK Racing – Grand National Preview & Odds

Even by the standards of the Grand National this year’s race looks extraordinarily competitive and it was a struggle to get the short-list down to a single-figure number of horses. The best solution may be a young improver on a handy, low weight in the form of The Last Samuri (5.15).

He is one of two horses in the race that left Donald McCain’s ailing yard at the end of last season but it would be rather unfair to suggest that was the moment at which The Last Samuri’s career took off. He was a prolific winner for McCain, too, and has simply continued the progress he seemed likely to make. A year ago, when he was winning for his former trainer around Kelso, he looked the right type for this race.

The handicapper would like to stick another 12lb on his back, in light of his easy success at Doncaster last month. But the weights for the National had already been fixed and, with only 10st 8lb to carry, The Last Samuri has a golden opportunity.

The dangers are led by Sir Des Champs, runner-up in the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup before being struck down by a tendon injury. He has dropped to an attractive weight after a couple of midwinter flops on ground he may not have enjoyed and Willie Mullins reports that his last piece of work was quite impressive.

It was most interesting to see the alacrity with which Ruby Walsh switched from his original booking, on Boston Bob, to ride Sir Des Champs after the owner’s retained jockey opted for First Lieutenant. As it turns out, Walsh misses the race but Sir Des Champs should give Nina Carberry a good spin.

Goonyella would be in danger of getting outpaced if the forecast overnight rain does not materialise. But he is perhaps the strongest stayer in the field and always seems to come good at this time of year. If he gets a clear run through, he will surely be staying on more doggedly than anything else from the final fence.

At 50-1 The Romford Pele is the most plausible outsider, having looked a likely candidate for this until losing his way a couple of years ago. There was quite a bit of promise in his last two runs over hurdles and he could cause a shock here if able to cope with these much bigger obstacles.

Of those that did not make my 1-2-3-4 I am most worried about The Druids Nephew, deprived by a late fall of probable victory in last year’s National. But he is higher in the weights this time and his recent form has not been so encouraging.

Saint Are, last year’s runner-up, will surely go well again, though a softer surface this time does not look like good news for him. Many Clouds has a better chance of a repeat success than most National winners but it is hard to escape the feeling that there will be something to outspeed him from the last.

ODDS

-6221
1MANY CLOUDS
J: L P ASPELL
W: 74.5 KGS
9
-22P1
2SILVINIACO CONTI
J: N D FEHILY
W: 73.5 KGS
13
8432P
3FIRST LIEUTENANT
J: B J COOPER
W: 71.5 KGS
34
83P-2
4WONDERFUL CHARM
J: SAM TWISTON-DAVIES
W: 71 KGS
41
35PP7
5BALLYNAGOUR
J: T SCUDAMORE
W: 71 KGS
67
P1P87
6O’FAOLAINS BOY
J: B HUGHES
W: 70.5 KGS
26
-3455
7GILGAMBOA
J: R M POWER
W: 70.5 KGS
41
F4828
8ON HIS OWN
J: MR P W MULLINS
W: 70.5 KGS
51
F-662
9THE DRUIDS NEPHEW
J: D F O’REGAN
W: 70 KGS
17
P3-15
10TRIOLO D’ALENE
J: J MCGRATH
W: 70 KGS
26
-2P40
11ROCKY CREEK
J: A THORNTON
W: 69.5 KGS
67
4/157
12SIR DES CHAMPS
J: R WALSH
W: 69.5 KGS
21
-54P2
13HOLYWELL
J: R P MCLERNON
W: 69 KGS
17
15-3P
14SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR
J: B J GERAGHTY
W: 68.5 KGS
17
-0413
15SOLL
J: C O’FARRELL
W: 68.5 KGS
51
-3243
16BUYWISE
J: PAUL MOLONEY
W: 68 KGS
34
-50P1
17BOSTON BOB
J: P TOWNEND
W: 68 KGS
34
11209
18AACHEN
J: HENRY BROOKE
W: 68 KGS
101
3/224
19MORNING ASSEMBLY
J: D N RUSSELL
W: 67.5 KGS
17
24599
20DOUBLE ROSS
J: RYAN HATCH
W: 67.5 KGS
101
-3942
21GOONYELLA
J: J J BURKE
W: 67 KGS
17
P-623
22UCELLO CONTI
J: D A JACOB
W: 67 KGS
17
80312
23UNIONISTE
J: NICK SCHOLFIELD
W: 67 KGS
26
02615
24LE REVE
J: HARRY SKELTON
W: 67 KGS
51
-1F75
25GALLANT OSCAR
J: M P WALSH
W: 67 KGS
17
-1225
26ONENIGHTINVIENNA
J: T J O’BRIEN
W: 67 KGS
34
2-311
27THE LAST SAMURI
J: D BASS
W: 67 KGS
11
72-15
28KRUZHLININ
J: R JOHNSON
W: 66.5 KGS
26
32254
29RULE THE WORLD
J: D J MULLINS
W: 66.5 KGS
41
1-092
30JUST A PAR
J: SEAN BOWEN
W: 66 KGS
51
/P-P0
31KATENKO
J: W KENNEDY
W: 66 KGS
67
-85P6
32VICS CANVAS
J: R T DUNNE
W: 66 KGS
101, 81
7-0U6
33BLACK THUNDER
J: MR S WALEY-COHEN
W: 66 KGS
67
-4935
34BALLYCASEY
J: MS K WALSH
W: 66 KGS
67
/6P-7
35HADRIAN’S APPROACH
J: NICO DE BOINVILLE
W: 66 KGS
67, 51
11F26
36VIEUX LION ROUGE
J: J REVELEY
W: 66 KGS
67
45-15
37PENDRA
J: AIDAN COLEMAN
W: 66 KGS
67
2-671
38SAINT ARE
J: P J BRENNAN
W: 66 KGS
15
P8-46
39HOME FARM
J: A E LYNCH
W: 65.5 KGS
101, 81
77F38
40THE ROMFORD PELE
J: TREVOR WHELAN
W: 65.5 KGS
41
30311
41BISHOPS ROAD
J: RESERVE 1
W: 65 KGS
214F4
42KNOCK HOUSE
J: RESERVE 2
W: 65 KGS
-2510
43PERFECT CANDIDATE
J: RESERVE 3
W: 64.5 KGS
-1356
44MAGGIO
J: RESERVE 4
W: 64.5 KGS

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