XFL Betting Trends & Week 4 Value – Bet the XFL – Now that we have three weeks of XFL action in the books, we can analyze the data to identify betting trends and value for week 4. In particular, the over/under market appears to have been wrong from the beginning, and it could be time to cash in.
Week 4 XFL Odds & Schedule
Los Angeles Wildcats at New York Guardians
- Odds: Wildcats -7
- Over/Under: 40
- Time: 2 p.m. ET on Saturday
- TV Channel: ABC
Sportsbet Magazine Top Rated Handicapper Best XFL Bet Over 40 -110
Seattle Dragons at St. Louis BattleHawks
- Odds: BattleHawks -12
- Over/Under: 38.5
- Time: 5 p.m. ET on Saturday
- TV Channel: FOX
Sportsbet Magazine Top Rated Handicapper Best XFL Bet Over 38.5 -110
Houston Roughnecks at Dallas Renegades
- Odds: Roughnecks -1
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Time: 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV Channel: FS1
Sportsbet Magazine Top Rated Handicapper Best XFL Bet – No Bet. The Roughnecks are the only team to hot the over in all 3 matchups and that leaves at risk at the current number.
DC Defenders at Tampa Bay Vipers
- Odds: Defenders -1
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV Channel: ESPN2
Sportsbet Magazine Top Rated Handicapper Best XFL Bet Over 43.5 -110
XFL Betting Trends
The Over/Under Market
The under has famously hit in eight of the 12 games so far this season in the XFL. The Roughnecks are the only team that has seen the over hit in all three of their games.
Why has the Under hit so frequent and why does Sportsbet Magazine Top Rated Handicapper like the Over in 3 of the 4 XFL Games this week?
Red-Zone Efficiency
Red-zone efficiency has been a significant factor for points, or lack thereof through the first three weeks of the XFL season. The league as a whole struggled in the first two weeks, converting just 40.6% of red-zone drives into a touchdown in Week 1 and 36.4% in Week 2. The teams rebounded in a big way in Week 3, converting 60.5% of the time, bringing the league average on the season to 48.4%. These low-efficiency totals have been a big factor in driving the under to hit in most games. From a betting persepctive, online sports books had no data to rely on, given that these teams are just learning how to play togother the outcome is not surprising.
Play Calling/Coaching
The league has underwhelmed a little to those who anticipated an extremely pass-heavy approach to the game. Many analysts expected somewhere in the neighborhood of a 65% pass-to-35% run ratio for the XFL season. So far, the league is averaging a 56.5% pass-to-43.5% run ratio. The run ratio has been trending up in each of the last three weeks as we saw a 60/40 split in Week 1, 56/44 split in Week 2, and a 53/47 split in Week 3. With new rules implemented it was truly a test drive for players and coaching staff as to how teams would adapt to rules and implement strategies.
THE BETTING VALUE
As we have just discovered the data for the over/under has lowered the overall totals for week 4 in the XFL. But as discussed there are several key factors as to why this data is not accurate, after all these are franchises and teams just learning to play together.
The expectations early were for pass heavy efficient offenses, which wasn’t the case. But now the totals are lowered and teams start to find their true identity, ie gel together in red zone efficiency and the play calling is more reliable there maybe no better time to bet the over.
Against the Spread XFL betting trends
St. Louis is the only team that has covered the spread in each of its first three games this season. The BattleHawks have done so by a pretty healthy margin in two of their three games. In Week 1, they covered by 15.5 points as they came into the game as 9.5-point underdogs against Dallas and pulled off an upset. In Week 2, they covered by 3.5 points as they kept the game close against Houston despite being 7.5-point underdogs. In Week 3, they demolished New York by 20 points, easily covering the 10.5-point spread as favorites. On average, they’re covering the spread by 9.5 points so far this season, most in the league. There matchup this week has them favorites by 12 but the over is still the best value set at 38. A very low number considering the spread is so high.
The D.C. Defenders and Dallas Renegades are the only two teams who are 2-1 ATS so far this season.
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